AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs NYY
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYY to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYY -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYY
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYY wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPittsburgh vs New York Y Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
PIT @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
66%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
66%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
47%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore PIT by 1.08 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PIT 4.87, NYY 5.95
- Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Will Warren (NYY)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Mitch Keller
PIT SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
59%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 18% to reach 5+ against NYY
Max Fried
NYY SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 42% to reach 5+ against PIT
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.