AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYM vs MIL
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYM @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYM Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDNew York M vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYM @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
67%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
69%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
50%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
65%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore NYM by 1.38 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYM 4.82, MIL 6.20
- Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Brandon Sproat (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Christian Scott
NYM SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
44%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
45%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 61% to reach 5+ against MIL
Logan Henderson
MIL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
45%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
37%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
24%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 54% to reach 5+ against NYM
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Logan Henderson
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 33% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Gary Sánchez
MIL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Christian Scott
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Logan Henderson
Luis Lara
MIL · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Christian Scott
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Logan Henderson
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Logan Henderson
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Logan Henderson
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Christian Scott
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Logan Henderson
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Christian Scott
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Logan Henderson
Marcus Semien
NYM · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Logan Henderson
Luis Torrens
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Logan Henderson
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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