AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs CLE
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CLE to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CLE -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CLE
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CLE wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMinnesota vs Cleveland Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
31%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore CLE by 0.62 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIN 4.57, CLE 3.95
- Kendry Rojas (MIN) vs Parker Messick (CLE)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Bailey Ober
MIN SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
- 20% to reach 5+ against CLE
Slade Cecconi
CLE SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
- 24% to reach 5+ against MIN
Byron Buxton
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Rhys Hoskins
CLE · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bailey Ober
Gabriel Arias
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Bailey Ober
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bailey Ober
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Slade Cecconi
David Fry
CLE · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bailey Ober
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Bailey Ober
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bailey Ober
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Austin Hedges
CLE · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bailey Ober
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Slade Cecconi
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 27% against 30%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Bailey Ober
Petey Halpin
CLE · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
- Batting 9
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Bailey Ober
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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