AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs HOU
Miami Marlins at Houston Astros
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMiami vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIA @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
64%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
66%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
52%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
64%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore MIA by 1.48 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIA 4.56, HOU 6.04
- Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Tatsuya Imai (HOU)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Sandy Alcantara
MIA SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
81%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
81%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
72%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against HOU
Peter Lambert
HOU SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
15%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 52% to reach 5+ against MIA
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
44%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Peter Lambert
Jeremy Peña
HOU · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Peter Lambert
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Peter Lambert
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Peter Lambert
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Joe Mack
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Peter Lambert
Lucas Spence
HOU · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Peter Lambert
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Peter Lambert
Christian Vázquez
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sandy Alcantara
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Peter Lambert
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Peter Lambert
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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