AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDLAD vs PHI
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the LAD @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
LAD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDLos Angeles D vs Philadelphia Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
LAD @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
52%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore LAD by 1.48 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: LAD 4.39, PHI 5.87
- Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Eric Lauer
LAD SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
72%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
81%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
70%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
- 19% to reach 5+ against PHI
Aaron Nola
PHI SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 70% to reach 5+ against LAD
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eric Lauer
Derek Hill
PHI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eric Lauer
Shohei Ohtani
LAD · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Aaron Nola
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Eric Lauer
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Eric Lauer
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eric Lauer
Edmundo Sosa
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eric Lauer
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eric Lauer
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Eric Lauer
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Aaron Nola
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Eric Lauer
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Aaron Nola
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
Alex Call
LAD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Aaron Nola
Eliezer Alfonzo
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Aaron Nola
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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