AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDDET vs CHC
Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
DET Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
DET Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDDetroit vs Chicago C Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
DET @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
80%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
76%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
33%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
71%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
63%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore CHC by 1.07 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: DET 7.15, CHC 6.08
- Framber Valdez (DET) vs David Peterson (CHC)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Keider Montero
DET SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
- 14% to reach 5+ against CHC
Colin Rea
CHC SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
74%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
68%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
- 31% to reach 5+ against DET
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Colin Rea
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 37% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Keider Montero
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Keider Montero
Gleyber Torres
DET · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 46% against 36% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Colin Rea
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Colin Rea
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 45% against 36% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Colin Rea
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Colin Rea
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Keider Montero
Hao-Yu Lee
DET · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Colin Rea
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Keider Montero
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Keider Montero
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Keider Montero
Jake Rogers
DET · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Colin Rea
Ben Malgeri
DET · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Colin Rea
Matt Vierling
DET · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 74%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Keider Montero
Kevin Alcántara
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Keider Montero
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 74%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Keider Montero
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.