AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs TEX
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDChicago WS vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
81%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
80%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
45%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
65%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
72%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore CWS by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 6.35, TEX 6.98
- Noah Schultz (CWS) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Anthony Kay
CWS SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
36%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 27% to reach 5+ against TEX
Cal Quantrill
TEX SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
70%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
69%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
- 25% to reach 5+ against CWS
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
42%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
53%
Total Bases
4+ bases
47%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 42% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Justin Foscue
TEX · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Anthony Kay
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 35% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Anthony Kay
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Josh Jung
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 43% against 36% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Anthony Kay
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 36% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Drew Romo
CWS · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Cam Cauley
TEX · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Anthony Kay
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Cal Quantrill
Alejandro Osuna
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Anthony Kay
Luisangel Acuña
CWS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cal Quantrill
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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