AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs SEA
Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCincinnati vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
30%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore SEA by 0.75 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.49, SEA 3.73
- Chase Burns (CIN) vs Luis Castillo (SEA)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Brady Singer
CIN SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 52% to reach 5+ against SEA
Emerson Hancock
SEA SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
68%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
- 65% to reach 5+ against CIN
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Emerson Hancock
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Brady Singer
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Brady Singer
Nathaniel Lowe
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brady Singer
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Brady Singer
Jose Trevino
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
Victor Robles
SEA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Weston Wilson
SEA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brady Singer
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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