AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDWSH vs COL
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the WSH @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
WSH Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 22 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDWashington vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
WSH @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
WSH to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
87%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
84%
Run Line
COL -1.5
40%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
75%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
75%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 15.13 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: WSH 7.63, COL 7.50
- Miles Mikolas (WSH) vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Miles Mikolas
WSH SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
89%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
83%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 14% to reach 5+ against COL
Michael Lorenzen
COL SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
68%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
- 18% to reach 5+ against WSH
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
40%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
51%
Total Bases
2+ bases
69%
Total Bases
3+ bases
55%
Total Bases
4+ bases
47%
RBIs
1+ RBI
59%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
35%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 40% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
87%
Hits
2+ hits
57%
Total Bases
2+ bases
72%
Total Bases
3+ bases
57%
Total Bases
4+ bases
48%
RBIs
1+ RBI
57%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
32%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Curtis Mead
WSH · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
86%
Hits
2+ hits
54%
Total Bases
2+ bases
69%
Total Bases
3+ bases
55%
Total Bases
4+ bases
45%
RBIs
1+ RBI
57%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
54%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miles Mikolas
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
68%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Andrés Chaparro
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 39% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Harry Ford
WSH · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 43% against 40% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miles Mikolas
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 79%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miles Mikolas
Jacob Young
WSH · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Miles Mikolas
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 76%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Miles Mikolas
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Michael Lorenzen
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 75% against 79%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Miles Mikolas
Braxton Fulford
COL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 72% against 79%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Miles Mikolas
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 79%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Miles Mikolas
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 79%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Miles Mikolas
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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