AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSTL vs LAA
St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the STL @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
STL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
STL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · STL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAA wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSt. Louis vs Los Angeles A Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
STL @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
38%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
49%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.71 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: STL 4.89, LAA 4.82
- Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Walbert Ureña (LAA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Matthew Liberatore
STL SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
34%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against LAA
Walbert Ureña
LAA SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
63%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
28%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
- 63% to reach 5+ against STL
Mike Trout
LAA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Jordan Walker
STL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Alec Burleson
STL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
JJ Wetherholt
STL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Lars Nootbaar
STL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Josh Lowe
LAA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Iván Herrera
STL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Denzer Guzman
LAA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Blaze Jordan
STL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Masyn Winn
STL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Matthew Liberatore
Nathan Church
STL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Walbert Ureña
Jimmy Crooks
STL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Walbert Ureña
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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