AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSF vs KC
San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SF Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SF Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Francisco vs Kansas City Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SF @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
KC -1.5
36%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore KC by 0.26 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SF 5.14, KC 4.88
- Tyler Mahle (SF) vs Luinder Avila (KC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Tyler Mahle
SF SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 42% to reach 5+ against KC
Luinder Avila
KC SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 46% to reach 5+ against SF
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Luinder Avila
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Luinder Avila
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Luinder Avila
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Luis Arraez
SF · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 35% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Heliot Ramos
SF · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luinder Avila
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Vinnie Pasquantino
KC · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Josh Rojas
KC · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Daniel Susac
SF · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Drew Gilbert
SF · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luinder Avila
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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