AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs NYY
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYY to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYY -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYY
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYY wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPittsburgh vs New York Y Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
65%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
47%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
61%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore PIT by 1.07 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PIT 4.84, NYY 5.91
- Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Will Warren (NYY)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Bubba Chandler
PIT SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 38% to reach 5+ against NYY
Will Warren
NYY SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
61%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Will Warren
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Will Warren
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Will Warren
Trent Grisham
NYY · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Will Warren
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Will Warren
Marcell Ozuna
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Will Warren
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Will Warren
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Ryan McMahon
NYY · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Jared Triolo
PIT · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Will Warren
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Billy Cook
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Will Warren
Austin Wells
NYY · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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