AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYM vs MIL
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYM @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYM Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDNew York M vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYM @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
44%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
52%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore NYM by 0.76 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYM 4.39, MIL 5.15
- Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Brandon Sproat (MIL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Zac Thornton
NYM SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
72%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 37% to reach 5+ against MIL
Brandon Sproat
MIL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
19%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
- 50% to reach 5+ against NYM
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Zac Thornton
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Zac Thornton
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zac Thornton
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Zac Thornton
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Zac Thornton
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Zac Thornton
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zac Thornton
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Zac Thornton
Francisco Alvarez
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Zac Thornton
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Sproat
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 64%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Luis Robert Jr.
NYM · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Jorge Polanco
NYM · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 64%.
- Batting 5
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Sproat
Brett Baty
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Sproat
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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