AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs HOU
Miami Marlins at Houston Astros
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMiami vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
MIA @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
51%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
57%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore MIA by 1.46 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIA 4.06, HOU 5.52
- Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Tatsuya Imai (HOU)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Tyler Phillips
MIA SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
68%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 57% to reach 5+ against HOU
Tatsuya Imai
HOU SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
32%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
20%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 56% to reach 5+ against MIA
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.