AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAD vs PHI

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, July 20, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD

0·0

PHILADELPHIAPHI

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB95.6

FB93.5

SL84.7

CV76.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

45%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 18 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D vs Philadelphia Winner?

55%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD PHI

Game Markets

LAD @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

58%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

50%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

30%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore LAD by 1.37 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAD 3.48, PHI 4.85
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Justin Wrobleski

LAD SP · vs. PHI

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

79%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

71%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
30% to reach 5+ against PHI

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

83%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
95% to reach 5+ against LAD

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Andy Pages

LAD · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Dalton Rushing

LAD · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Zack Wheeler

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Zack Wheeler

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Zack Wheeler

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Zack Wheeler

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Alex Call

LAD · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Zack Wheeler

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Facing Justin Wrobleski

Gabriel Rincones Jr.

PHI · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Justin Wrobleski

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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