AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDDET vs CHC
Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
DET Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
DET Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDDetroit vs Chicago C Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
DET @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
70%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
68%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
32%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
64%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore CHC by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: DET 6.20, CHC 5.18
- Framber Valdez (DET) vs David Peterson (CHC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Framber Valdez
DET SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
90%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
81%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
70%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 47% to reach 5+ against CHC
David Peterson
CHC SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
80%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
83%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
73%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 50% to reach 5+ against DET
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
32%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 32% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing David Peterson
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing David Peterson
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Framber Valdez
Kerry Carpenter
DET · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing David Peterson
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 46% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing David Peterson
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing David Peterson
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Framber Valdez
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing David Peterson
Gleyber Torres
DET · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing David Peterson
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Framber Valdez
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Framber Valdez
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Framber Valdez
Zach McKinstry
DET · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing David Peterson
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 19% against 20%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Framber Valdez
James Outman
DET · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing David Peterson
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 72%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
Miguel Amaya
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Framber Valdez
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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