AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs TEX
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDChicago WS vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
74%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
68%
Game Total
Over 8.5
68%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
65%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
61%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
71%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore CWS by 2.78 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 4.18, TEX 6.95
- Erick Fedde (CWS) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Erick Fedde
CWS SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
84%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
74%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
- 15% to reach 5+ against TEX
Jacob deGrom
TEX SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
96%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
47%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
33%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
- 96% to reach 5+ against CWS
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Erick Fedde
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 39% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Erick Fedde
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Erick Fedde
Josh Jung
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Erick Fedde
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Erick Fedde
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Erick Fedde
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Kyle Teel
CWS · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Jacob deGrom
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Jacob deGrom
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.