AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs SEA
Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDCincinnati vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
30%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore SEA by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 4.28, SEA 3.65
- Chase Burns (CIN) vs Luis Castillo (SEA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Chase Burns
CIN SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
92%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
83%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
33%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
56%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
- 92% to reach 5+ against SEA
Luis Castillo
SEA SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
81%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 64% to reach 5+ against CIN
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Chase Burns
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Luis Castillo
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Chase Burns
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Luis Castillo
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luis Castillo
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Luis Castillo
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Luis Castillo
J.P. Crawford
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Luis Castillo
Dane Myers
CIN · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Luis Castillo
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Chase Burns
Buddy Kennedy
SEA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Chase Burns
Victor Robles
SEA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Chase Burns
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luis Castillo
Ke'Bryan Hayes
CIN · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 68%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Luis Castillo
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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