AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs BOS
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Monday, July 20, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDBaltimore vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BAL @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
61%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
61%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
38%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.21 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: BAL 5.11, BOS 5.10
- Shane Baz (BAL) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Shane Baz
BAL SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
75%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
68%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against BOS
Payton Tolle
BOS SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
- 75% to reach 5+ against BAL
Coby Mayo
BAL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Payton Tolle
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Baz
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Baz
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shane Baz
Anthony Seigler
BOS · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Shane Baz
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Baz
Jeremiah Jackson
BAL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Payton Tolle
Tyler O'Neill
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Payton Tolle
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Payton Tolle
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Shane Baz
Masataka Yoshida
BOS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Baz
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BAL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Payton Tolle
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Baz
Tsung-Che Cheng
BOS · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Shane Baz
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Payton Tolle
Sam Huff
BAL · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Payton Tolle
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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