AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTEX vs ATL
Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TEX @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TEX Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TEX Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TEX LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTexas vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TEX @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
62%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
34%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
55%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore ATL by 0.58 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TEX 5.40, ATL 4.82
- Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
84%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
24%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.8 strikeouts
- 84% to reach 5+ against ATL
Grant Holmes
ATL SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 42% to reach 5+ against TEX
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Wyatt Langford
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Josh Jung
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Grant Holmes
Jake Burger
TEX · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Grant Holmes
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Grant Holmes
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Grant Holmes
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Dominic Smith
ATL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Grant Holmes
Kyle Higashioka
TEX · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Grant Holmes
Brewer Hicklen
ATL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Grant Holmes
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nathan Eovaldi
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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