AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs BOS
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTampa Bay vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
67%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
67%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
34%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
59%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore BOS by 0.49 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 5.72, BOS 5.22
- Shane McClanahan (TB) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Shane McClanahan
TB SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 56% to reach 5+ against BOS
Sonny Gray
BOS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
58%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
66%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
- 40% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
32%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sonny Gray
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 36% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sonny Gray
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 46% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Jahmai Jones
BOS · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sonny Gray
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sonny Gray
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 34% against 36%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 34% against 36%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Hunter Feduccia
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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