AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs KC
San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 13 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Diego vs Kansas City Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDKC Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-34 (.294) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career · 84°F, 13mph wind
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
KC to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
68%
Run Line
KC -1.5
45%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
60%
THE READ
KC projects to outscore SD by 0.80 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 4.99, KC 5.78
- Germán Márquez (SD) vs Noah Cameron (KC)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Germán Márquez
SD SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
26%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
- 10% to reach 5+ against KC
Noah Cameron
KC SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
56%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against SD
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Germán Márquez
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Germán Márquez
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Noah Cameron
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Noah Cameron
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Noah Cameron
Luis Campusano
SD · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Noah Cameron
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Germán Márquez
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Germán Márquez
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Germán Márquez
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Noah Cameron
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Germán Márquez
Tyler Tolbert
KC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Germán Márquez
Josh Rojas
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Germán Márquez
Miguel Andujar
SD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Noah Cameron
Luke Maile
KC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Germán Márquez
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Cameron
Jase Bowen
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Cameron
Luis Rengifo
SD · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 7
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Cameron
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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