AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYM vs PHI
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYM @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
NYM Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
PHI to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
PHI -1.5
TEAM TOTAL PHI
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
PHI wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDNew York M vs Philadelphia Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYM @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
57%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
43%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore NYM by 0.58 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYM 4.58, PHI 5.16
- Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Alan Rangel (PHI)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Nolan McLean
NYM SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against PHI
Alan Rangel
PHI SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
22%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
- 25% to reach 5+ against NYM
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
Juan Soto
NYM · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Alan Rangel
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nolan McLean
A.J. Ewing
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Alan Rangel
Francisco Lindor
NYM · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Alan Rangel
Bo Bichette
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Alan Rangel
Carson Benge
NYM · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Alan Rangel
Jared Young
NYM · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Alan Rangel
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
J.T. Realmuto
PHI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Nolan McLean
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Nolan McLean
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nolan McLean
Marcus Semien
NYM · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 7
- Facing Alan Rangel
Brett Baty
NYM · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Alan Rangel
Luis Torrens
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Alan Rangel
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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