AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs CHC
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMinnesota vs Chicago C Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
74%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
71%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
49%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
55%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
69%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore MIN by 1.22 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIN 5.41, CHC 6.63
- Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Zebby Matthews
MIN SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
58%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
80%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
70%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
- 47% to reach 5+ against CHC
Shota Imanaga
CHC SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
44%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 61% to reach 5+ against MIN
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
44%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
64%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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