AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs MIL
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMiami vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIA @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
47%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
58%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore MIA by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIA 4.57, MIL 5.57
- Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Eury Pérez
MIA SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
27%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.1 strikeouts
- 87% to reach 5+ against MIL
Robert Gasser
MIL SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
38%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 44% to reach 5+ against MIA
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Eury Pérez
Griffin Conine
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
Gary Sánchez
MIL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
Andrew Vaughn
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Robert Gasser
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Brice Turang
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Eury Pérez
Esteury Ruiz
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
Braden Shewmake
MIL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 68%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Eury Pérez
Leo Jiménez
MIA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
Jakob Marsee
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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