AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

LAD vs NYY

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees

Sunday, July 19, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD

0·0

NEW YORKNYY

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

LAD Leadoff (R) vs HP

CV78.5

CH87.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

LAD Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LAD LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

32%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLAD Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Los Angeles D vs New York Y Winner?

68%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAD NYY

Game Markets

LAD @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

32%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore NYY by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAD 4.99, NYY 4.34
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
Run on confirmed lineups

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD SP · vs. NYY

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

24%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
87% to reach 5+ against NYY

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

28%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
83% to reach 5+ against LAD

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cam Schlittler

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cam Schlittler

Andy Pages

LAD · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Cam Schlittler

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Cam Schlittler

Dalton Rushing

LAD · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Cam Schlittler

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Cam Schlittler

Jasson Domínguez

NYY · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 3 · bats S
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Cam Schlittler

Cody Bellinger

NYY · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 4 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cam Schlittler

Max Schuemann

NYY · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Anthony Volpe

NYY · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 67%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 67%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Cam Schlittler

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Ali Sánchez

NYY · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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