AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDDET vs LAA
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
DET Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
DET Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAA wins F5
event 1 / 20 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDDetroit vs Los Angeles A Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
DET @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
70%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
26%
Game Total
Over 8.5
65%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
62%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
20%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
68%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore LAA by 2.62 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: DET 6.66, LAA 4.03
- Casey Mize (DET) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Casey Mize
DET SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
26%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
75%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
- 86% to reach 5+ against LAA
Ryan Johnson
LAA SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
79%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
67%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 58% to reach 5+ against DET
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Kerry Carpenter
DET · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Mike Trout
LAA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Casey Mize
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
Hao-Yu Lee
DET · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Casey Mize
Vaughn Grissom
LAA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
James Outman
DET · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Jake Rogers
DET · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 33% against 35%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Casey Mize
Josh Lowe
LAA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Casey Mize
Oswald Peraza
LAA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Casey Mize
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
Tyler Heineman
LAA · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Casey Mize
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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