AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs TOR
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TOR to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TOR -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TOR
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TOR wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDChicago WS vs Toronto Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
48%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
38%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.98 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: CWS 5.03, TOR 4.95
- Sean Burke (CWS) vs Trey Yesavage (TOR)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Sean Burke
CWS SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
70%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 46% to reach 5+ against TOR
Trey Yesavage
TOR SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
58%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
- 80% to reach 5+ against CWS
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Sean Burke
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Sean Burke
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Randal Grichuk
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Brandon Valenzuela
TOR · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Sean Burke
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Sean Keys
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sean Burke
Jonatan Clase
TOR · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Sean Burke
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Sean Burke
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Drew Romo
CWS · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 15%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Yesavage
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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