AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCIN vs COL
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CIN @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDCincinnati vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CIN @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
69%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
27%
Game Total
Over 8.5
89%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
82%
Run Line
COL -1.5
22%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
85%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
63%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore COL by 3.19 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CIN 9.26, COL 6.07
- Hunter Greene (CIN) vs Ryan Feltner (COL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Hunter Greene
CIN SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
54%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 69% to reach 5+ against COL
Ryan Feltner
COL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
87%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
78%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 50% to reach 5+ against CIN
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
69%
Total Bases
3+ bases
54%
Total Bases
4+ bases
46%
RBIs
1+ RBI
60%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
35%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
86%
Hits
2+ hits
55%
Total Bases
2+ bases
70%
Total Bases
3+ bases
56%
Total Bases
4+ bases
46%
RBIs
1+ RBI
58%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
34%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
89%
Hits
2+ hits
60%
Total Bases
2+ bases
74%
Total Bases
3+ bases
59%
Total Bases
4+ bases
48%
RBIs
1+ RBI
59%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 48% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Greene
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
84%
Hits
2+ hits
50%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
51%
Total Bases
4+ bases
42%
RBIs
1+ RBI
58%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Greene
Nathaniel Lowe
CIN · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
45%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 45% against 41% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 80%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Greene
Dane Myers
CIN · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 79%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Ryan Feltner
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Greene
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 74% against 78%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Greene
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 72% against 78%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Greene
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 78%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Feltner
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 78%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Greene
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 78%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Hunter Greene
Edouard Julien
COL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 78%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Greene
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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