AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs HOU
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
Sunday, July 19, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BAL @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
56%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
42%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore BAL by 0.43 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BAL 4.94, HOU 5.38
- Brandon Young (BAL) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Brandon Young
BAL SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
57%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 43% to reach 5+ against HOU
Hunter Brown
HOU SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
39%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 75% to reach 5+ against BAL
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
49%
Total Bases
4+ bases
41%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Young
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Hunter Brown
Samuel Basallo
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Hunter Brown
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Young
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Young
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Brandon Young
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Lucas Spence
HOU · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6
- Facing Brandon Young
Raynel Delgado
HOU · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Brandon Young
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Hunter Brown
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Nick Allen
HOU · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Young
Coby Mayo
BAL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
II · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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