AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs BOS
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTampa Bay vs Boston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
54%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
31%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore BOS by 0.70 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TB 5.05, BOS 4.35
- Shane McClanahan (TB) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Shane McClanahan
TB SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
56%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
- 51% to reach 5+ against BOS
Sonny Gray
BOS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
55%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 45% to reach 5+ against TB
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
35%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
48%
Total Bases
4+ bases
40%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Sonny Gray
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Yandy Díaz
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Ryan Vilade
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Sonny Gray
Chandler Simpson
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Sonny Gray
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 3+ bases — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Anthony Seigler
BOS · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Sonny Gray
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Ben Williamson
TB · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Nick Fortes
TB · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Sonny Gray
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Jahmai Jones
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Shane McClanahan
Carlos Narváez
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane McClanahan
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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