AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSF vs SEA
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SF Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SF Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Francisco vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
97 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 12
Game Markets
SF @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
SEA to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
50%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
SEA projects to outscore SF by 1.50 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SF 3.47, SEA 4.98
- Robbie Ray (SF) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Robbie Ray
SF SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
80%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
- 67% to reach 5+ against SEA
Logan Gilbert
SEA SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
85%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
38%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
99%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
63%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 7.9 strikeouts
- 94% to reach 5+ against SF
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Robbie Ray
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Robbie Ray
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Facing Robbie Ray
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Robbie Ray
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
J.P. Crawford
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Robbie Ray
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robbie Ray
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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