AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs CLE
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CLE to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CLE -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CLE
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CLE wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPittsburgh vs Cleveland Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
PIT to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
34%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.96 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: PIT 4.08, CLE 3.88
- Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Joey Cantillo (CLE)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Paul Skenes
PIT SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
16%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
- 80% to reach 5+ against CLE
Joey Cantillo
CLE SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Paul Skenes
Gabriel Arias
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Paul Skenes
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Paul Skenes
Rhys Hoskins
CLE · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Paul Skenes
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Paul Skenes
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Paul Skenes
Tyler Callihan
PIT · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Kahlil Watson
CLE · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Paul Skenes
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Paul Skenes
Jacob Gonzalez
PIT · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Joey Cantillo
Patrick Bailey
CLE · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Paul Skenes
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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