AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs CHC
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDMinnesota vs Chicago C Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CHC to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
43%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
53%
THE READ
CHC projects to outscore MIN by 0.53 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIN 4.59, CHC 5.12
- Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs Shota Imanaga (CHC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Zebby Matthews
MIN SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
87%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
81%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
71%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 57% to reach 5+ against CHC
Shota Imanaga
CHC SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
8%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
38%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 68% to reach 5+ against MIN
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Ryan Jeffers
MIN · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Victor Caratini
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Austin Martin
MIN · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Trevor Larnach
MIN · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shota Imanaga
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Pedro Ramírez
CHC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Zebby Matthews
Miguel Amaya
CHC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Zebby Matthews
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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