AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIA vs MIL
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIA @ MIL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIA Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
MIL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
MIL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL MIL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
MIL wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMiami vs Milwaukee Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIA @ MIL · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
MIL F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
MIL -1.5
39%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore MIA by 0.27 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: MIA 4.33, MIL 4.61
- Eury Pérez (MIA) vs Robert Gasser (MIL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Eury Pérez
MIA SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
- 79% to reach 5+ against MIL
Robert Gasser
MIL SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 41% to reach 5+ against MIA
Jake Bauers
MIL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Heriberto Hernández
MIA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Jackson Chourio
MIL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
Otto Lopez
MIA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Garrett Mitchell
MIL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Eury Pérez
Luis Lara
MIL · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6
- Facing Eury Pérez
William Contreras
MIL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
Kyle Stowers
MIA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Robert Gasser
Christian Yelich
MIL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Cooper Pratt
MIL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Braden Shewmake
MIL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Eury Pérez
Xavier Edwards
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Robert Gasser
Esteury Ruiz
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
Javier Sanoja
MIA · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Robert Gasser
Liam Hicks
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
Joe Mack
MIA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Robert Gasser
Leo Jiménez
MIA · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Robert Gasser
Joey Ortiz
MIL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Eury Pérez
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.