AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDDET vs LAA
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
DET Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
DET Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAA wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDDetroit vs Los Angeles A Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
DET @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
25%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
57%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore LAA by 1.55 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: DET 5.62, LAA 4.07
- Casey Mize (DET) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Casey Mize
DET SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
84%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
69%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
21%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
81%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
- 84% to reach 5+ against LAA
Ryan Johnson
LAA SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against DET
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.