AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs HOU
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
Saturday, July 18, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDBaltimore vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BAL @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
42%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore BAL by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BAL 4.12, HOU 4.61
- Brandon Young (BAL) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Brandon Young
BAL SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
58%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
- 47% to reach 5+ against HOU
Hunter Brown
HOU SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
38%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
36%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 63% to reach 5+ against BAL
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Young
Samuel Basallo
BAL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Hunter Brown
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Hunter Brown
Jeremy Peña
HOU · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Facing Brandon Young
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Brandon Young
Adley Rutschman
BAL · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Hunter Brown
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Brandon Young
Zach Dezenzo
HOU · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Brandon Young
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Brandon Young
Jackson Holliday
BAL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Lucas Spence
HOU · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Brandon Young
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 69%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Hunter Brown
Colton Cowser
BAL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 16% against 17%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BAL · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 69%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Hunter Brown
Dylan Beavers
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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