AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPHI vs KC
Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals
Sunday, July 5, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PHI @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PHI Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PHI Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PHI LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 17 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDPhiladelphia vs Kansas City Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✓ CONFIRMEDKC Over 4.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 23-for-72 (.319) with 7 HR vs. this starter, career
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PHI @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
27%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
KC -1.5
23%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
27%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore KC by 1.52 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PHI 4.80, KC 3.28
- Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs Noah Cameron (KC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
87%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
43%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
74%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.1 strikeouts
- 94% to reach 5+ against KC
Noah Cameron
KC SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
- 41% to reach 5+ against PHI
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Noah Cameron
Bryce Harper
PHI · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Noah Cameron
Brandon Marsh
PHI · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Noah Cameron
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Trea Turner
PHI · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Noah Cameron
Alec Bohm
PHI · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Noah Cameron
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Cameron
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Bryson Stott
PHI · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Noah Cameron
Justin Crawford
PHI · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Noah Cameron
Garrett Stubbs
PHI · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Noah Cameron
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Josh Rojas
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Kameron Misner
KC · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cristopher Sánchez
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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