AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBAL vs CIN
Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, July 5, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BAL @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BAL Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BAL Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BAL LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CIN to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CIN -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CIN
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CIN wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDBaltimore vs Cincinnati Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BAL @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
36%
Game Total
Over 8.5
75%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
75%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
31%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
69%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
58%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore CIN by 1.25 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BAL 6.79, CIN 5.54
- Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Kyle Bradish
BAL SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
22%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
62%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
71%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
59%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 76% to reach 5+ against CIN
Nick Lodolo
CIN SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
22%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 37% to reach 5+ against BAL
Pete Alonso
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Coby Mayo
BAL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
28%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Nick Lodolo
JJ Bleday
CIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Sal Stewart
CIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Taylor Ward
BAL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Adley Rutschman
BAL · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Spencer Steer
CIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Tyler Stephenson
CIN · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Blaze Alexander
BAL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Tyler O'Neill
BAL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Leody Taveras
BAL · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Jeremiah Jackson
BAL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Nick Lodolo
Eugenio Suárez
CIN · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 72%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Noelvi Marte
CIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Bradish
Edwin Arroyo
CIN · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Bradish
TJ Friedl
CIN · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kyle Bradish
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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