AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs SEA
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDToronto vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
GAME TOTAL
✗ MISSEDTOR Over 3.5 runs
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 15-for-50 (.300) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career · pitcher-friendly park
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
41%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
32%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
37%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore SEA by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 3.98, SEA 3.66
- Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs Emerson Hancock (SEA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Trey Yesavage
TOR SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
64%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against SEA
Emerson Hancock
SEA SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
55%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against TOR
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Trey Yesavage
J.P. Crawford
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Yohendrick Piñango
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Sean Keys
TOR · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Brandon Valenzuela
TOR · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Emerson Hancock
Victor Robles
SEA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Trey Yesavage
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Emerson Hancock
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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