AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTB vs HOU
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TB @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TB Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TB Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TB LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
HOU to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
HOU -1.5
TEAM TOTAL HOU
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
HOU wins F5
event 1 / 21 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDTampa Bay vs Houston Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TB @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
38%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.95 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: TB 4.42, HOU 4.53
- Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Drew Rasmussen
TB SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
51%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
55%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
- 71% to reach 5+ against HOU
Hunter Brown
HOU SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
68%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
- 45% to reach 5+ against TB
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Junior Caminero
TB · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Brown
Christian Walker
HOU · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Jonathan Aranda
TB · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Ryan Vilade
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Brown
Isaac Paredes
HOU · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
LaMonte Wade Jr.
HOU · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ bases — 44% against 41% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Taylor Trammell
HOU · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Jose Altuve
HOU · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Cam Smith
HOU · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Victor Mesa Jr.
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Hunter Brown
Cedric Mullins
TB · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Hunter Brown
Yainer Diaz
HOU · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Jonny DeLuca
TB · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Hunter Brown
Hunter Feduccia
TB · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
Taylor Walls
TB · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
3%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
5%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Hunter Brown
Nick Allen
HOU · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Drew Rasmussen
Richie Palacios
TB · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Hunter Brown
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.