AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSF vs COL
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SF @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SF Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SF Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SF LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 15 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDSan Francisco vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SF @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
81%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
77%
Run Line
COL -1.5
36%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
71%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
65%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore COL by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SF 6.95, COL 6.28
- Tyler Mahle (SF) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Tyler Mahle
SF SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
- 34% to reach 5+ against COL
Tanner Gordon
COL SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
83%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
88%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
81%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 65% to reach 5+ against SF
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
66%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
56%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
33%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Casey Schmitt
SF · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
52%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
52%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 35% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Rafael Devers
SF · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Heliot Ramos
SF · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
85%
Hits
2+ hits
51%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Victor Bericoto
SF · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Luis Arraez
SF · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
48%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 48% against 42% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Eric Haase
SF · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Willy Adames
SF · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 80%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Jung Hoo Lee
SF · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 81%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Bryce Eldridge
SF · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
43%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 79%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Gordon
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 78%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Troy Johnston
COL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 75% against 79%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Braxton Fulford
COL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 71% against 79%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tyler Mahle
Ezequiel Tovar
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 70% against 79%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tyler Mahle
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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