AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDSD vs LAD
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the SD @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
SD Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
SD Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SD LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAD wins F5
event 1 / 23 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDSan Diego vs Los Angeles D Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
SD @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
58%
Game Total
Over 8.5
52%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
50%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore SD by 1.48 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: SD 3.80, LAD 5.27
- JP Sears (SD) vs Emmet Sheehan (LAD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JP Sears
SD SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
65%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 22% to reach 5+ against LAD
Emmet Sheehan
LAD SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
18%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
- 73% to reach 5+ against SD
Max Muncy
LAD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Dalton Rushing
LAD · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Tommy Edman
LAD · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Teoscar Hernández
LAD · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6
- Facing JP Sears
Andy Pages
LAD · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing JP Sears
Ty France
SD · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Manny Machado
SD · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Gavin Sheets
SD · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Freddie Freeman
LAD · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Mookie Betts
LAD · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 38% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JP Sears
Kyle Tucker
LAD · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 37% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing JP Sears
Luis Campusano
SD · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Jake Cronenworth
SD · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 2
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Alex Freeland
LAD · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 68%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing JP Sears
Miguel Andujar
SD · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Xander Bogaerts
SD · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 68%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
Jackson Merrill
SD · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 68%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Emmet Sheehan
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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