AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDPIT vs WSH
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the PIT @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
PIT Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
PIT Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · PIT LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
WSH to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
WSH -1.5
TEAM TOTAL WSH
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
WSH wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDPittsburgh vs Washington Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
PIT @ WSH · full-game reads
Moneyline
WSH to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
WSH F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
WSH -1.5
44%
Team Total
PIT Over 4.5
47%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
WSH projects to outscore PIT by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: PIT 4.72, WSH 5.36
- Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Cade Cavalli (WSH)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Bubba Chandler
PIT SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against WSH
Cade Cavalli
WSH SP · vs. PIT
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
48%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
45%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 59% to reach 5+ against PIT
Brandon Lowe
PIT · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
31%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
46%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Esmerlyn Valdez
PIT · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
29%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
62%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
53%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
29%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
44%
Total Bases
4+ bases
35%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Konnor Griffin
PIT · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
61%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 47% against 35% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Cade Cavalli
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Bryan Reynolds
PIT · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
81%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Curtis Mead
WSH · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Nick Gonzales
PIT · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 77%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Tyler Callihan
PIT · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Henry Davis
PIT · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Jake Mangum
PIT · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 74%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Bubba Chandler
José Tena
WSH · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 74%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Drew Millas
WSH · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 74%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bubba Chandler
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 74%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Bubba Chandler
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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