AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYM vs ATL

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

Saturday, July 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYM @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYM

0·0

ATLANTAATL

TOP 10-10 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

NYM Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB93.1

CV77

CV76.9

SL85.6

SL86.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

NYM Leadoff in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · NYM LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

28%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYNYM Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 20 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

New York M vs Atlanta Winner?

72%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM ATL

Game Markets

NYM @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

33%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore ATL by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: NYM 5.07, ATL 4.49
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. ATL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
71% to reach 5+ against ATL

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. NYM

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
23% to reach 5+ against NYM

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

42%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Nolan McLean

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Nolan McLean

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Nolan McLean

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Martín Pérez

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Facing Nolan McLean

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Nolan McLean

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats S
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Martín Pérez

Joey Bart

ATL · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Nolan McLean

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Nolan McLean

Eric Wagaman

NYM · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Martín Pérez

Jorge Mateo

ATL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Nolan McLean

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Martín Pérez

Mark Vientos

NYM · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Martín Pérez

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Martín Pérez

Eli White

ATL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Nolan McLean

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Martín Pérez

Tyrone Taylor

NYM · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 68%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Martín Pérez

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 68%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Martín Pérez

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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