AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDMIN vs NYY
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
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One representative trial from the MIN @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
MIN Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
MIN Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · MIN LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
NYY to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
NYY -1.5
TEAM TOTAL NYY
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
NYY wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDMinnesota vs New York Y Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
MIN @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
43%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
35%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
39%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.04 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: MIN 4.10, NYY 3.94
- Joe Ryan (MIN) vs Ryan Weathers (NYY)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Joe Ryan
MIN SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
43%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
- 78% to reach 5+ against NYY
Ryan Weathers
NYY SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
75%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
12%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 6.0 strikeouts
- 75% to reach 5+ against MIN
Ben Rice
NYY · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
41%
Hits
1+ hits
83%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
67%
Total Bases
3+ bases
54%
Total Bases
4+ bases
47%
RBIs
1+ RBI
57%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 41% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Joe Ryan
Byron Buxton
MIN · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
38%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
63%
Total Bases
3+ bases
50%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
55%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 38% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Kody Clemens
MIN · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Trent Grisham
NYY · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joe Ryan
Trevor Larnach
MIN · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
41%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Ryan McMahon
NYY · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Facing Joe Ryan
Josh Bell
MIN · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 74%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Joe Ryan
Cody Bellinger
NYY · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Joe Ryan
Anthony Volpe
NYY · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Joe Ryan
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Facing Joe Ryan
Ryan Kreidler
MIN · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Max Schuemann
NYY · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Joe Ryan
Royce Lewis
MIN · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 38% against 40%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Alex Jackson
MIN · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 69% against 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Ali Sánchez
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Facing Joe Ryan
Brooks Lee
MIN · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Ryan Weathers
Luke Keaschall
MIN · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 73%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Weathers
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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