AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDDET vs TEX
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
DET Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
DET Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · DET LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
TEX to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
TEX -1.5
TEAM TOTAL TEX
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
TEX wins F5
event 1 / 18 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDDetroit vs Texas Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
DET @ TEX · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
TEX F5
33%
Game Total
Over 8.5
51%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
TEX -1.5
28%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
DET projects to outscore TEX by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: DET 5.08, TEX 4.07
- Casey Mize (DET) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Casey Mize
DET SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
43%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
16%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
- 76% to reach 5+ against TEX
Kumar Rocker
TEX SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
42%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
- 53% to reach 5+ against DET
Dillon Dingler
DET · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
36%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
47%
Total Bases
2+ bases
65%
Total Bases
3+ bases
52%
Total Bases
4+ bases
43%
RBIs
1+ RBI
54%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
30%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Kerry Carpenter
DET · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Joc Pederson
TEX · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
25%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Casey Mize
Riley Greene
DET · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
33%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 33% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Kevin McGonigle
DET · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Spencer Torkelson
DET · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Josh Jung
TEX · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Casey Mize
Colt Keith
DET · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Brandon Nimmo
TEX · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Casey Mize
Elias Díaz
TEX · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Casey Mize
Ben Malgeri
DET · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Kumar Rocker
James Outman
DET · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Zach McKinstry
DET · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Kumar Rocker
Josh Smith
TEX · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
- Batting 2
- Facing Casey Mize
Nicky Lopez
TEX · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Casey Mize
Alejandro Osuna
TEX · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Casey Mize
Ezequiel Duran
TEX · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 70%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Casey Mize
Evan Carter
TEX · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Casey Mize
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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