AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
CWS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
CWS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CWS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CLE to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CLE -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CLE
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CLE wins F5
event 1 / 16 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDChicago WS vs Cleveland Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
63%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
64%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
49%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
60%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore CWS by 1.26 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 4.58, CLE 5.83
- Erick Fedde (CWS) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Erick Fedde
CWS SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
67%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
- 18% to reach 5+ against CLE
Tanner Bibee
CLE SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
66%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
90%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
67%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
- 66% to reach 5+ against CWS
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Randal Grichuk
CWS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Kyle Manzardo
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Kahlil Watson
CLE · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Cooper Ingle
CLE · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Erick Fedde
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Erick Fedde
Daniel Schneemann
CLE · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Austin Hedges
CLE · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Junior Perez
CWS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 67%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Erick Fedde
Luisangel Acuña
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
Drew Romo
CWS · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 12%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Tanner Bibee
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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