AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDBOS vs LAA
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, July 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the BOS @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
BOS Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
BOS Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · BOS LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
LAA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
LAA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL LAA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
LAA wins F5
event 1 / 19 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDBoston vs Los Angeles A Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
BOS @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
36%
Game Total
Over 8.5
58%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
29%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
55%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
BOS projects to outscore LAA by 1.04 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: BOS 5.41, LAA 4.37
- Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Ranger Suarez
BOS SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
92%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
- 77% to reach 5+ against LAA
Ryan Johnson
LAA SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 36% to reach 5+ against BOS
Willson Contreras
BOS · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
48%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
24%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Zach Neto
LAA · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Jorge Soler
LAA · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Anthony Seigler
BOS · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 33% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
79%
Hits
2+ hits
42%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Romy Gonzalez
BOS · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Jo Adell
LAA · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Donovan Walton
LAA · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Denzer Guzman
LAA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Wade Meckler
LAA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Andruw Monasterio
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Connor Wong
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Hot streak, thin underlying support
- Facing Ryan Johnson
Nolan Schanuel
LAA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Josh Lowe
LAA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Tyler Heineman
LAA · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 72%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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