AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDTOR vs SEA
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 3, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the TOR @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
TOR Leadoff (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
TOR Leadoff in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TOR LEADOFF
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 14 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDToronto vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
TOR @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
SEA to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
43%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
SEA projects to outscore TOR by 0.85 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: TOR 3.49, SEA 4.34
- Shane Bieber (TOR) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Shane Bieber
TOR SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
23%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
29%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
- 13% to reach 5+ against SEA
Logan Gilbert
SEA SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
41%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
97%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
- 94% to reach 5+ against TOR
Kazuma Okamoto
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Dominic Canzone
SEA · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Shane Bieber
Luke Raley
SEA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Shane Bieber
Nathan Lukes
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Daulton Varsho
TOR · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Ernie Clement
TOR · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Yohendrick Piñango
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Alejandro Kirk
TOR · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Sean Keys
TOR · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Randy Arozarena
SEA · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Shane Bieber
Andrés Giménez
TOR · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Logan Gilbert
Colt Emerson
SEA · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 11% against 12%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Josh Naylor
SEA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 59%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Cole Young
SEA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
J.P. Crawford
SEA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 59%.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Shane Bieber
Cal Raleigh
SEA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
24%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 12%.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Bieber
Victor Robles
SEA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
46%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
9%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
15%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 59%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Shane Bieber
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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